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Republican Election Losses Stir Fall Fears | |
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THE PROGRESSIVE REVIEW - May 19, 2008
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Republican Election Losses Stir Fall Fears
By Adam Nagourney and Carl Hulse
The New York Times
Washington - The Republican defeat in a special
Congressional contest in Mississippi sent waves of
apprehension across an already troubled party Wednesday,
with some senior Republicans urging Congressional
candidates to distance themselves from President Bush
to head off what could be heavy losses in the fall.
The victory by Travis Childers, a conservative Democrat
elected in a once-steadfast Republican district on Tuesday,
was the third defeat of a Republican in a special
Congressional race this year. In addition to foreshadowing
more losses for the party in November, the outcome appeared
to call into question the belief that Senator Barack Obama
of Illinois could be a heavy liability for his party's down-
ticket candidates in conservative regions.
Republicans had sought to link Mr. Childers to Mr. Obama in
an advertising campaign there. Republican leaders said they
were looking to Senator John McCain of Arizona, the likely
Republican nominee, as a model whose independent reputation
appears to allow him to rise above party in a year when the
Republican label seems tarnished.
But Mr. McCain's advisers said the Mississippi race under-
lined his intention to distance himself as much as possible
from Congressional Republicans. Mr. McCain has already been
openly critical of some of President Bush's strategies.
The level of distress was evident in remarks by senior
party officials throughout the day.
"This was a real wake-up call for us," Robert M. Duncan,
the chairman of the Republican National Committee, said in
an interview. "We can't let the Democrats take our issues.
We can't let them pretend to be conservatives and co-opt
the middle and win these elections. We have to get the
attention of our incumbents and candidates and make sure
they understand this."
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Representative Tom Davis, Republican of Virginia and former
leader of his party's Congressional campaign committee,
issued a dire warning that the Republican Party had been
severely damaged, in no small part because of its identifi-
cation with President Bush. Mr. Davis said that, unless
Republican candidates changed course, they could lose 20
seats in the House and 6 in the Senate.
"They are canaries in the coal mine, warning of far greater
losses in the fall, if steps are not taken to remedy the
current climate," Mr. Davis said in a memorandum. "The
political atmosphere facing House Republicans this November
is the worst since Watergate and is far more toxic than it
was in 2006."
The result in Mississippi, and what Republicans said was a
surge in African-American turnout, suggested that Mr. Obama
might have the effect of putting into play Southern seats
that were once solidly Republican, rather than dragging
down Democratic candidates.
Mr. McCain acknowledged the difficulties he and other
Republicans face in this political environment. Asked at
a news conference on Wednesday in Columbus, Ohio, if the
string of Republican losses suggested a problem with the
Republican label and if he was worried it would spill
over to him in November, Mr. McCain said, "Sure, all of
the above."
Mr. McCain added that he was confident that he would win,
but said, "I have no illusions about this; this campaign
will be a very difficult challenge."
At a tense, private post-mortem Wednesday morning, worried
House Republicans demanded that their leadership come up
with a plan to stave off potentially devastating losses
in November. Republican officials said no leaders or top
campaign strategists appeared to be in immediate danger
of losing their positions, though in interviews, there
was evidence of vast dissatisfaction, frustration and
discouragement with the party's position.
"The Republican brand is down, and it is going to be
hard to get it back," said Representative Devin Nunes,
Republican of California.
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Representative Peter T. King, Republican of New York,
said it appeared that lawmakers might have to fend for
themselves. "You are going to have to run on who you are
and establish some independence, and that is going to be
tougher for some than others," Mr. King said.
Representative Tom Cole of Oklahoma, the chairman of the
National Republican Congressional Committee, did not go
as far as his predecessor, Mr. Davis, in advising members
to step away from Mr. Bush. But Mr. Cole, facing growing
restiveness among Republicans about the party leadership,
acknowledged the tumult in his party's ranks and suggested
that his committee would look for a change in strategy.
"When you lose three of these in a row you have to get
beyond campaign tactics and take a hard look and ask if
there is something wrong with your product," he said.
Advisers to Mr. McCain said they thought the problems
Congressional Republicans were having would not translate
into significant problems for Mr. McCain. But they said it
steeled their resolve to run a campaign that distinguished
Mr. McCain from both Mr. Bush and a Congress where he has
served, in the House and the Senate, since January 1983.
They said Mr. McCain would seek - sometimes explicitly,
sometimes not - to distance himself by speaking critically
of what he has described as excessive spending in
Washington, as well on issues like the environment.
"There's no question that the results in these special
elections portend ominously for House Republicans, but
they will have little impact on the presidential election
campaign," said Steve Schmidt, a senior adviser to Mr.
McCain.
The special election results left Democrats and Republicans
in rare agreement about one thing: President Bush looms
as a drag on Republicans. Democratic leaders said a
combination of anxiety among voters about the state of the
country and the prospect of an unusually heavy turnout of
African-Americans meant that many new Senate and House
seats could be in play, including those in states like
North Carolina that just two years ago seemed out of reach
for Democrats.
Woody Jenkins, a Louisiana Republican who lost in a special
House election this month, said in an interview that the
high African-American turnout in his district was "probably
the decisive factor" in his loss.
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The election results also raised questions about what had
been a main Republican strategy for the fall, if Mr. Obama
wins the nomination: to link Democrats in conservative
districts to Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama, campaigning in Sterling
Heights, Mich., said the outcome in the Mississippi
contest, to fill a "hard-core Republican seat," proved
that the strategy would not work.
"They lost it by eight points, and they did everything they
could," Mr. Obama said. "They ran ads with my face on it,
and they said, 'Oh, you look at this, a former liberal, and
his former pastor's said offensive things. They were trying
to do everything in the book to try to scare folks in
Mississippi, and it didn't work."
But Mr. Duncan, the Republican national chairman, said he
thought the strategy would be effective as voters became
aware of Mr. Obama's liberal record in the months ahead.
The latest defeat prompted concern among Republican
contributors as Mr. Obama has lapped Mr. McCain in raising
money (though the Republican National Committee has out-
raised the Democratic National Committee).
Scott Reed, a former chief of staff to the Republican
National Committee, said the defeat would dampen fund-
raising. "Republican leadership needs to really take a
good look in the mirror," Mr. Reed said. "They're taking
the party off the cliff."
Republican House members said the political terrain was
tilted against them, and some expressed despair about the
months ahead at the private meeting on Wednesday. One House
Republican rated the panic expressed at the meeting as a
7 on a scale of 10.
Another Republican who spoke at the meeting, Representative
Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, said, "We need to, No. 1,
prove that we are listening to the American people, and,
No. 2, show that we have a plan of action to respond to
what they are telling us."
Contributing reporting were Elisabeth Bumiller from
Columbus, Ohio; Michael Luo from New York; Adam Nossiter
from New Orleans; and Jim Rutenberg from Grand Rapids,
Michigan.
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