Publication: Travel Tips
A Computerized Crystal Ball | |
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COOL TRAVEL MAIL'S
TRAVEL TIPS
Tips & Advice for the Seasoned and Armchair Traveler Alike!
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http://www.CoolTravelMail.com
Nov. 6, 2007
I've always been a sucker for fortune tellers.
Of course, anyone whose ever read the "psychic travel
predictions" newsletter I do every New Year's already knows
that.
It's not that I buy into any of that aura-reading, crystal-
gazing, tarot-card-flipping stuff.
It's just that there are few things more annoying than
researching and booking a trip only to discover the ticket
price plunges shortly after you pay the money.
This week's topics include:
* A COMPUTERIZED CRYTAL BALL
* A FORTUNE TELLING REPORT CARD
* INTERNET SPYING AND KAYAKING
P.S. If you're interested you can now post comments on this
and recent issues on our forum at... Travel Tips Forum
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A COMPUTERIZED CRYTAL BALL
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The good news is, some travel entrepreneurs out there are
trying to replace crystal balls with computer chips.
If one new program, currently in its beta - or testing -
mode, continues to expand and improve, many frugal
travelers should be able to get a useful glimpse into
the future.
Farecast.com (http://www.farecast.com) bills itself as the
world's first airfare prediction site.
Simply enter your itinerary and the site might be able to
tell you whether you should buy your ticket now, or wait
because an even better fare is probably on the way. The
site then allows you to book directly with whatever
airline is offering the best fare.
It's a great concept, and the company says its predictions
so far have a 70 to 75 percent accuracy rate. That's
actually very good for a market as volatile as this one.
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A FORTUNE TELLING REPORT CARD
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It seems like a pretty good deal, if you happen to have a
trip that qualifies.
Farecast is being very careful in how it introduces Fare
Guard. Right now, it is only available on a separate Web
site, that visitors to the Farecast homepage are directed
to. The program is still in its testing stages, say company
officials, who are still tinkering with how Fare Guard will
work.
Farecast predictions are available on more than 2,000
popular routes from 75 domestic cities to more than 120
domestic destinations, according to the Web site.
If your trip is among those covered, you can get a fare
history chart, a price prediction, and an indication of what
the firm’s forecasting track record has been in this
particular market. The results finish with a bottom-line tip
on whether to buy now or wait.
To make its forecasts, the site analyzes past fare trends in
airline databases and mixes in other factors that it feels
most affect ticket prices. That's a lot of data to crunch.
To provide the airfare history, for example, the company
claims to have more than 90 billion airfare observations
based on real pricing and availability. It updates its
information daily shortly after 10 a.m., 12:30 p.m. and 3
p.m. eastern.
Although Farecast is my favorite fortune-telling travel site
and appears to be the most advanced, it is not the only one.
The Washington Post rated a handful of math-based fare
predictors in September. Farecast got a B+. Here’s how the
others did:
* FareCompare.com (http://www.fare compare.com)
This is one of the few sites of this type that is out of the
testing phase. It collects historical pricing info for more
than 77,000 city pairs covering the United States and
Canada. It then figures out minimum, average and maximum
fares. It updates its database three times daily with about
6 million fares.
The site also does a good job ferreting out cheap, business
-class seats, according to the Post's review.
But, unlike Farecast, it doesn't link you directly to the
airlines to buy your ticket. Instead, it directs you to the
site's partners - Travelocity, Expedia, Orbitz and
Priceline, which all charge a booking fee.
Final Grade: B+
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INTERNET SPYING AND KAYAKING
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* Flyspy.com (http://www.flyspy.com)
This site is only in its testing phase, but it shows
promise.
Eventually, Flyspy wants to allow travelers to see all of
their best flight options and fares between two cities over
a 30-day period in one quick search.
For now, you can see how it will work by clicking on
Minneapolis to Washington Dulles. A graph pops up with a
month of fares. Click on how long you want to stay, and the
best fares on the best dates pop up in green.
Over the next few months, the firm plans to launch an
expanded testing phase. In time, it plans to calculate more
than 100 million airfares daily.
Final Grade: Incomplete, but headed for a high B
* Kayak.com (http://www.kayak.com)
This established metasearch site doesn't specialize in
historical airfare tracking, but it's a player in the game.
The site recently launched its third tool for discovering
trends.
The "best fare trend" graph pops up when you do a query
between heavily traveled markets. It indicates whether the
average fare has gone up or down in the past 90 days.
Kayak says there are trend graphs for 415,000 city pair and
date combos covering the most heavily traveled markets, but
sometimes major routes like Washington to New York don't
make the cut. The data is based on results found by site
users rather than data mined from airfare pricing sources,
so the information is limited.
Final Grade: C+
Well, that's it for this week, group. Thanks again for
reading, and please keep those comments, complaints and
questions coming in.
You can send me an e-mail message at: Email Pierce
Until next week, thanks for reading.
Your Tipmeister,
Pierce
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