Publication: Conservative Review
The Clinton Style | |
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THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW
January 11, 2008
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The Clinton Style
By Robert D. Novak
WASHINGTON, D.C. - Late on Tuesday afternoon, when exit
polls indicated Sen. Barack Obama would defeat Sen. Hillary
Clinton in the New Hampshire primary, there was palpable
relief from many Democrats -- including some avowed
supporters of her presidential candidacy -- that the
country soon would be finished with not only the Bushes
but the Clintons. Four hours later came evidence of the
political folly in underestimating the former president
and his wife.
The exit polls were so wrong because they grossly under-
stated the female vote in New Hampshire. Had the turnout
of women there, which constituted an unprecedented 57
percent of the actual Democratic vote, been plugged in
to exit interviews, a 2-percentage point Clinton victory
would have been forecast. The unexpected female support
in turn can be attributed to the Clinton style, which may
not be pretty but is effective. Hillary Clinton's tears
evoked sympathy for her, and Bill Clinton's sneers
generated contempt for Obama.
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That is a good lesson for Republican strategists who
had been fretting about the difficulty of running against
a fresh face like Obama and hoping for Clinton. It
strengthens the case for Sen. John McCain, who after New
Hampshire is the Republican front-runner. The man who
spent six years in a communist prison and has been abused
and reviled by Washington's K Street power brokers may be
the only Republican who can cope with what the Clintons
would throw at him.
It is difficult to exaggerate the funereal tone inside
the Clinton camp on New Hampshire's election day. Sen.
Clinton's campaigning there following her third-place
Iowa finish was uninspired and uninspiring. Even her
husband had seemed to lose his famous vibrancy. One
Democratic old pro who supports her compared the atmosphere
to the last days of Edmund Muskie's failed candidacy in
1972. Expectations of a double-digit defeat on Tuesday
led to speculation of at least a "relaunched" post-New
Hampshire campaign and even a withdrawal before a possible
embarrassment in her home state New York primary on Feb. 5.
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With that background, Sen. Clinton's lachrymose complaint
in New Hampshire Monday that "this is very personal for me"
was widely compared to Muskie's crying jag in Manchester
36 years ago that began his political downfall. But whereas
Muskie's tears were involuntary, only the naive can believe
Clinton was not artfully playing for sympathy from her
sisters. It worked.
Bill Clinton's accompanying belittling of Obama as
unqualified ("the biggest fairytale I've ever seen") was
similarly regarded within the party as a serious blunder.
That indeed was the reaction from the Obama camp. Obama
himself was condescending about his powerful detractor:
"I understand he's feeling a little frustrated right now."
In fact, an attack by so powerful and popular a Democratic
icon should have been taken seriously by the neophyte
candidate.
In New Hampshire during the run-up to the primary, several
prominent Republicans expressed to me their regret that
they would not have the opportunity to run against a tired,
vulnerable Hillary Clinton and had no strategy whatever
for contesting a fresh, appealing Barack Obama. An
exception to that mindset is Sen. Lindsey Graham, a long-
time McCain adviser who feels Clinton would be not only
more experienced but a far more formidable contestant
than Obama.
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McCain, though he is far from beloved in his own party's
ranks, is perhaps better equipped to withstand the batter-
ing he would receive from the Clintons and be able to
respond in kind. In the intense four days of New Hampshire
campaigning following the Iowa caucuses, McCain was the
subject of unremitting attack from Mitt Romney because
of his support for President Bush's immigration reform.
He was able to turn aside those attacks by effectively
denying that he sought amnesty for illegal aliens.
The lesson of New Hampshire for Obama's campaign should
be that rock-star popularity is not sufficient to take
on the Clintons, who for a decade have given no quarter
to their political foes. When it seemed that Obama would
win in New Hampshire, the Clinton camp was preparing an
attack strategy against him. Since Obama is favored in
the next big primary test in South Carolina on Jan. 26,
he can expect more of the same ahead.
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Copyright 2008 by NextEra Media. All rights reserved.
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