Publication: Progressive Review
Obama's Victory Upends His Party's Politics | |
Subscribe FREE to Progressive Review by clicking here.
THE PROGRESSIVE REVIEW - January 7, 2008
------------------------------------------------------------
Obama's Victory Upends His Party's Politics
By Peter Wallsten
The Los Angeles Times
Des Moines - Barack Obama's surprisingly convincing win in
Iowa on Thursday upended the Democratic presidential race
and overturned some of the fundamental assumptions of
modern-day American politics.
Voters in an overwhelmingly white state embraced an African
American candidate.
Women, given the chance to vote for the first credible
female White House hopeful in Hillary Rodham Clinton,
voted in larger numbers for a man.
And the Democratic Party's most formidable political
machine, drawing on deep-pocket donors and the celebrity
of former President Clinton, was beaten by a man who just
three years ago held an office no higher than state
legislator.
Amid it all, Obama, a first-term senator from Illinois,
changed the rules of the Iowa caucuses.
Long viewed as an insular process dominated by longtime
political activists, Thursday's first-in-the-nation voting
event of the 2008 campaign turned out to be a forum for
unaffiliated voters and first-time participants to say
they were looking for something new and different.
One-fifth of the Democratic caucus participants were
independents, according to a media survey taken as voters
entered precincts Thursday night - and of them, 41% backed
Obama and just 17% opted for Clinton. Moreover, 57% of
caucus-goers said it was their first time taking part,
and first-time caucus-goers made up two-thirds of Obama's
supporters.
Even among Democrats - who Clinton strategists have long
argued would be her saving grace - Obama and Clinton
essentially tied, winning 32% and 31% respectively.
------------------------------------------------------------
Are You Trying To Go Green In 2008?
Let Us Help... We've got EASY-TO-IMPLEMENT tips that you
can start on today. Get these tips delivered Monday thru
Friday directly to your email box.
Let's all band together to save our planet. Little changes
REALLY do make a difference. You Can Do It. To sign-up for
Living Green for free, just visit our GopherCentral page
at: Living Green
------------------------------------------------------------
The entrance survey of 2,136 Democratic caucus partici-
pants, called the National Election Poll, was conducted
for a consortium of media organizations, including the
Los Angeles Times, by Edison/Mitofsky.
The results helped answer a question that has lingered for
nearly a year: Would a desire for experience in a time of
war outweigh voters' desire for change in national leader-
ship?
According to the media survey of Democratic caucus-goers,
just one in five considered experience to be the most
important factor, compared to more than half who said an
ability to bring "needed change" mattered most. And among
those who embraced change, more than half backed Obama
while Clinton and John Edwards split most of the rest
in that category.
For the New York senator, the results stood as a sharp
rebuke by voters to a central argument of her candidacy:
that she, more than her rivals, was prepared to assume
the responsibilities of the presidency.
Surveys have long found that Clinton, the second-term
senator and former first lady, was viewed as the most
experienced and best-qualified to lead on matters of
national security and war.
But voters instead endorsed Obama's primary argument
for "turning the page" in Washington, an argument that
essentially painted Clinton as a status quo candidate.
"Change is the driving dynamic of the race, as opposed to
who has the most conventional resume or who voters see as
the 'strongest leader,'" said David Plouffe, Obama's
campaign manager.
The results are especially damaging for Edwards, the former
North Carolina senator. Even though he barely edged out
Clinton for second place the Democratic race is very much
a two-person contest, pitting Obama against Clinton.
Edwards was the party's 2004 vice presidential nominee
thanks in part to his surprisingly strong second-place
finish here in that year's caucuses. But after campaigning
in the state nearly nonstop since then, Edwards was thought
by some to have the strongest organization and the best
chance at victory.
------------------------------------------------------------
Relive One of the Man In Black's Greatest Performances
Johnny Cash Live From Austin on DVD
Following the success and popularity of Joaquin Phoenix's
portrayal of Johnny Cash in Walk the Line, we are proud to
present this rare DVD featuring Johnny Cash's 1987 live
appearance in Austin Texas. This moving DVD includes all
90 minutes of the performance, featuring classics like
"Ring of Fire," "Folsom Prison Blues," "I Walk the Line,"
"Long Black Veil," and "Ghost Riders in the Sky." Order
yours today for just $19.99 when you visit:
Johnny Cash Live From Austin
------------------------------------------------------------
Despite gaining steam in recent weeks with sharply populist
attacks on "corporate greed" and lobbyists' power, Edwards
on Thursday failed to win his core base of union households
and lower-income people.
He placed third among union households, winning 24% of
that group, compared to 31% for Clinton and 28% for Obama,
according to the entrance survey.
Edwards vowed on Thursday to compete in Tuesday's New
Hampshire primary and beyond, but strategists for his
rivals said they do not view him as a threat, mostly
because of his lackluster fundraising and the expenditure
limits imposed on his campaign because of his decision to
accept public financing.
Clinton, however, has the national support base and
resources to forge ahead.
She retains double-digit leads in national polls and in
most of the big states that vote in late January and
early February.
She has raised more than $100 million and, though her
once-daunting lead in New Hampshire has dwindled in recent
days, she enjoys advantages there that she did not have
in Iowa. It was a stronger-than-expected finish in New
Hampshire in 1992 that allowed her husband to declare
himself the "Comeback Kid," and strategists say many
voters there remain loyal to the Clintons.
One bright spot in Iowa was her strength among older
voters, a strength that could help her along the way.
"Of all the candidates, her support is the most solid,
and they will be with her come hell or high water," said
Ray Buckley, chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic
Party.
As a result, the Democratic race has gained more sharply
defined contours.
------------------------------------------------------------
DOG OWNERS - Train Your Dog Easily & Effectively
Quit spending hundreds of dollars on obedience schools and
get ready for John Fisher's Dog Training DVD. It's the
ideal DVD that answers all of your dog training questions.
Since the 90's a kinder, more reward-based approach has
replaced the more severe training methods, such as the
choke chain, that were once acceptable punishments for
doggy misdemeanors. John Fisher will help you establish a
good relationship with your dog from day one. Only $19.98.
Visit: Dog Training DVD
------------------------------------------------------------
Two Democratic candidates, Sens. Joseph R. Biden Jr. and
Christopher J. Dodd, both of whom made experience a central
pillar of their campaigns, have dropped out. New Mexico
Gov. Bill Richardson, who touted himself as the most
seasoned executive, has been diminished.
Now Clinton will be the sole candidate of experience, and
Obama, with Edwards in trouble, can grab the mantle of
change.
If voters in other states match the mind-set of Iowa, the
Clinton nomination long considered inevitable by top
Democratic and Republican strategists could be in serious
jeopardy.
She may encounter trouble winning additional donors, while
Obama's win is likely to spur more online giving to his
campaign.
Polls in other early-voting states, some of which have
tightened in recent weeks, could grow even closer.
And Clinton strategists will wonder if she should have
taken the advice of an aide who, last year, advised that
she skip Iowa.
The aide wrote in an internal memo that competing in the
caucuses, with more than 20 states including California
making up a decisive national primary on Feb. 5, could
"bankrupt the campaign and provide little if any political
advantage."
On Thursday, former President Clinton argued in an inter-
view in the downtown Des Moines Starbucks that his wife
had to go to Iowa to "show that she could compete every-
where."
The danger for Sen. Clinton is that, instead, it shows
the opposite.
------------------------------------------------------------
Questions? Comments? email: Email your comments
-----------------------------------------------------------
Check out Political Videos on the Net at evtv1.com
Political Videos
ARCHIVES: PROGRESSIVE REVIEW Archives
Here's the link to the Home page of the PROGRESSIVE REVIEW
Forum: THE PROGRESSIVE REVIEW Forum
------------------------------------------------------------
End of PROGRESSIVE REVIEW
Copyright 2008 by NextEra Media. All rights reserved.
 E-Mail this issue
Subscribe FREE to Progressive Review by clicking here.
|