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Senate Democrats Hope for a Majority | |
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THE PROGRESSIVE REVIEW - March 10, 2008
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Senate Democrats Hope for a Majority
Not Seen in 30 Years: 60 Seats
By David M. Herszenhorn
The New York Times
Washington - When Mark Begich, the popular 45-year-old
mayor of Anchorage, came to town for a meeting of mayors
in January, he was beckoned to the Capitol by the Senate
majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada. There was one
agenda item: ousting Senator Ted Stevens of Alaska, the
senior Republican in Congress.
For 45 minutes, Mr. Reid and Senator Charles E. Schumer
of New York, the head of the Democrats' campaign efforts,
pressed the mayor to run this year. Last week, they got
him. Mr. Begich announced that he had formed a committee
to start raising money. Effectively, the race is on.
For Democrats hoping the November elections set off a
seismic shift in Washington, the dream scenario is not
just capturing the White House, but also winning a
filibuster-proof majority of 60 seats in the Senate -
a luxury no president has enjoyed since Jimmy Carter
30 years ago.
As far-fetched as that might seem - Democrats now control
the Senate by a razor-thin 51 to 49, thanks only to two
independents who vote with them - some Democrats have
started thinking aloud that such a scenario is within
reach.
From the Northeast to the Southwest, the Democrats have
such a strong hand in this year's Senate contests that
they sense the possibility of victories in unlikely
states like Oklahoma and Mississippi, and now even
Alaska, which last elected a Democratic senator in 1974.
"It's a remote possibility, but it is within the realm of
plausible," said Paul Starr, a public affairs professor
at Princeton University and a liberal commentator.
Numbers help tell the story. Republicans have 23 seats to
defend, including five left vacant by retiring incumbents,
while the Democrats have just 12, with a competitive race
expected only in Louisiana. Even there, the incumbent,
Mary L. Landrieu, is still a heavy favorite.
The presidential race, too, seems to cut in the Democrats'
favor. In many states, there has been record voter turnout
in the primaries, but far more for the Democrats. About
28.5 million people have voted in Democratic primaries so
far, compared with more than 17.3 million in Republican
races, said Curtis Gans, director of the Center for the
Study of the American Electorate at American University.
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Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, in particular, has shown
the capacity to ignite turnout among younger voters and
blacks, and Democratic strategists believe he could have
longer coattails than Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of
New York in states like Minnesota and Oregon, where
Democrats hope to gain seats held by Republicans.
On the Republican side, the need of Senator John McCain,
the party's candidate, to run as a centrist may undermine
his ability to help Congressional candidates.
Democrats are dominating the money race as well. Campaign
finance data released in late February showed the
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee with more than
$30 million, compared with about $13 million for the
National Republican Senatorial Committee.
And though it is unlikely that Democrats will pick up nine
seats this year, according to any reading of the political
map it remains a possibility - as tantalizing a thought
for Democrats as it is horrifying to Republicans.
Democrats have repeatedly sought to get 60 votes to advance
legislation only to be blocked by Republicans. On Thursday,
Senate Democratic leaders complained that Republicans had
engaged in a record number of filibusters. Republicans
accused Democrats of exaggerating the numbers and of
inviting filibusters by pursuing legislation the Republicans
said was partisan.
So far, no Democratic incumbents are so vulnerable that
their re-election campaigns are rated as clearly up for
grabs.
"I don't remember a time when I had a ratings chart that I
am looking at now, where one party didn't have any races
in 'toss-up' at all," said Jennifer E. Duffy, who analyzes
Senate races for the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan
publication. "When have you had a cycle where a party has
a one-seat majority and there is absolutely no talk of them
losing that majority? It doesn't happen that way ever."
Analysts like Ms. Duffy predict that the Democrats will
pick up four to six seats, with an open seat in Virginia
virtually certain to flip in their favor and Republicans
at risk of losing open seats in Colorado and New Mexico.
Four Republican incumbents are potentially vulnerable
because voters in their states increasingly identify with
Democrats. They are John E. Sununu of New Hampshire, Norm
Coleman of Minnesota, Gordon H. Smith of Oregon and Susan
Collins of Maine. To get to 60, the Democrats would need
to win the three open seats and these four, protect their
incumbents and still pick up two seats in traditionally
Republican states like Mississippi and Oklahoma.
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In Mississippi, Ronnie Musgrove, a well-known former
governor, is the Democratic candidate for the seat vacated
by Trent Lott, who retired in December and was replaced by
Roger Wicker, a lesser-known United States representative.
In Oklahoma, environmental groups are raising money to
support Andrew Rice, a young state senator hoping to use
Senator James M. Inhofe's views on global warming - he has
said that its effects are exaggerated - to galvanize voters
and deny Mr. Inhofe a fourth term.
Among those sending Mr. Rice money was Adam Browning, the
executive director of Vote Solar, an advocacy group in
California.
"When you look at what's happening in Congress right now,
the magic number is not 51, it's actually 60," Mr. Browning
said. "There has been a bunch of very important legislation
from an environmental perspective that Republicans have
successfully filibustered."
In an interview, Mr. Rice said: "What I find among swing
voters statewide is it's time for change. Inhofe has been
in there too long. They really don't care whether I am a
Democrat or a Republican."
Republicans say Mr. Inhofe, 73, is a sure thing.
In Alaska, Mr. Stevens, 84, is a legendary figure. But like
some other Alaska Republicans, he has been caught up in a
corruption investigation, which included a search of his
home by F.B.I. agents last summer. Early polls show Mr.
Begich with a lead, and his candidacy is likely to excite
Democrats across the Northwest. On Monday, the mayor of
Seattle, Greg Nickels, was M.C. at an event to introduce
Mr. Begich to potential supporters there.
Publicly, Democrats are optimistic but trying to lower
expectations.
"There is a tremendous wind at our backs," said Mr. Schumer
of New York. "People want change; they associate the
Democratic Party with change. We have a very good map."
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Republicans acknowledge that they will probably lose the
seat in Virginia, but they say they believe that all of
the incumbents Democrats are taking aim at can hold on.
Republicans say they have a better-than-even shot in
Colorado, and a chance at upsets in Louisiana and South
Dakota. Republican hopes of an upset in New Jersey were
set back this week when their leading candidate dropped
out after suffering a minor stroke.
Senator John Ensign of Nevada, the chairman of the National
Republican Senatorial Committee, said his party's prospects
were better than last year when some potential donors would
not even take his calls.
And Mr. Ensign said Democrats' hopes of winning 60 seats
were far-fetched. "If they have the best night they could
have," he said, "they would get like 55-56. The best night
we could have, we get back in the majority."
Even if Democrats win a state like Alaska, Mr. Ensign said,
"I still don't see any way they get to 60."
Last week, the Republican committee introduced a fund-
raising drive called "Two Seats to Take Back the Senate."
Both sides agree that the most vulnerable incumbent is
Mr. Sununu. Democrats have tightened their grip on New
England in recent years, and Mr. Sununu has a formidable
challenger, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
In Virginia, former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat, is a
heavy favorite and ahead in fund-raising against his
likely Republican challenger, former Gov. James Gilmore.
Out West, the retirements of Senators Pete V. Domenici
of New Mexico and Wayne Allard of Colorado have lifted
Democrats' hopes.
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