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Bush Given Iraq War Plan | |
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THE PROGRESSIVE REVIEW - March 27, 2008
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Bush Given Iraq War Plan With a Steady Troop Level
By Steven Lee Myers and Thom Shanker
The New York Times
Washington - Troop levels in Iraq would remain nearly the
same through 2008 as they have been through most of the
five years of war there, under plans presented to President
Bush on Monday by the senior American commander and the
top American diplomat in Iraq, senior administration and
military officials said.
Mr. Bush announced no final decision on future troop levels
after the video briefing by the commander, Gen. David H.
Petraeus, and the diplomat, Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker. The
briefing took place on the day when the 4,000th American
military death of the war was reported and just after the
invasion's fifth anniversary.
But it now appears likely that any decision on major
reductions in American troops from Iraq will be left to
the next president. That ensures that the question over
what comes next will remain in the center of the
presidential campaign through Election Day.
General Petraeus, speaking to Mr. Bush by secure video-
conference during a two-hour meeting of the National
Security Council, recommended putting off decisions on
further troop reductions for a month or two after the
departure in July of five extra brigades sent last year
to help secure the nation, the officials said. They spoke
on the condition of anonymity in order to speak freely
about internal deliberations.
There would be more frequent reviews after that to see when
withdrawals might be allowed to resume, without any pre-
determined outcome and, given the time required to put
troops into motion, little likelihood of big reductions
on short timetables.
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During the briefing to the president, General Petraeus laid
out a number of potential options, the officials said, but
avoided using the term "pause." That word has gained
traction here in Washington over recent weeks to describe
the plateau in troop levels that is widely expected to last
through the fall elections and perhaps beyond.
Instead, he described the weeks after the departure of the
extra brigades ordered to Iraq in January 2007 as a period
of "consolidation and evaluation," a phrase first used
publicly by Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates during a
visit to Iraq in February.
The officials said that Mr. Bush and General Petraeus,
recognizing public and Congressional wariness about the
toll of the war, would publicly hold out the possibly of
withdrawing more troops, but only if conditions allowed
it. Mr. Bush, in particular, is eager to end his presidency
with the appearance that things are getting better in Iraq.
A review of conditions in Iraq roughly once a month, as
opposed to the large, formal reviews that have taken place
every six months, would be likely to prevent long debates
like the one that began almost the moment General Petraeus
and Ambassador Crocker reported to Congress last September
on the progress of the troop increase up to that point.
The withdrawal of the additional troops began in December
and will be completed in July.
The two men are to appear on Capitol Hill again on April
8 and 9.
These more frequent reviews are advocated, officials said,
by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and by the military's Central
Command, which is responsible for operations across the
region, including those in Afghanistan. The reviews would
determine how many more brigades, if any, could be ordered
out of Iraq in the final months of the Bush presidency.
Reducing the troops in Iraq as much as is feasible has been
a priority of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who are to brief
Mr. Bush this week. The Joint Chiefs have argued in favor
of finding ways to ease the strain of the war in Iraq on
military training and morale and to balance General
Petraeus's plans for Iraq with the need to prepare for
other potential conflicts. A decision to suspend further
reductions has already prompted criticism from Democrats
in Congress, especially as the presidential primary
campaign has intensified.
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The two Democratic candidates, Senators Hillary Rodham
Clinton and Barack Obama, have proposed more rapid with-
drawals of troops, though on different timelines. The
Republican candidate, Senator John McCain, has advocated
following a policy close to that of President Bush's.
Mr. Bush on Monday addressed the milestone of the 4,000th
death during a brief statement at the State Department,
where he met with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and
other senior aides. In a statement that began haltingly,
he expressed his sympathies for the families of those
killed, both soldiers and diplomats, and sought to put
their deaths in historical context.
"I have vowed in the past, and I will vow so long as I'm
president, to make sure that those lives were not lost in
vain; that, in fact, there is a outcome that will merit
the sacrifice that civilian and military alike have made;
that our strategy going forward will be aimed at making
sure that we achieve victory," he said.
By many accounts, the addition of five combat brigades
last year, which raised the American troop level to a
peak of nearly 170,000 from 132,000, was a factor in
helping reduce violence in Iraq. But Mr. Bush and his
aides are described as wary of risking the gains.
Mr. Bush, according to officials, could decide to make
no further reductions in troops after the departure this
summer of the last of the additional troops, leaving
roughly 140,000. That number includes the 15 combat
brigades in Iraq before the troop increase, as well as
additional support, training and other units that are
expected to stay.
Senior Army planning officers say it typically takes about
45 days to withdraw a combat brigade, meaning that only
two or three more brigades - at most - could be withdrawn
before the end of the year, which would leave troop levels
far above 100,000.
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At the same time, a fresh brigade now on the rotation
schedule for Iraq would need to know 70 to 90 days in
advance of a change in plans, in particular as heavy
equipment is loaded long before the troops step onto
transport planes.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff, as part of a study ahead of
their report to Mr. Bush at the Pentagon on Wednesday,
have been analyzing how those brigades that may not be
sent to Iraq can be used best, with options including
greater attention to training as well as whether missions
or elsewhere can be bolstered.
Another factor that may complicate the decisions on troop
levels this fall is the anticipation of provincial
elections across Iraq in October. For each previous
nationwide election, American force levels actually were
increased significantly to provide security for the voting.
Michele A. Flournoy, president of the Center for a New
American Security, a nonpartisan research organization,
said that many factors weighed on General Petraeus and
other commanders as they considered recommendations to
the president. Those included the coming Iraqi regional
elections, as well as the period of transition that will
follow the American election in November.
Ms. Flournoy expressed concern that some officials,
lawmakers and analysts were already looking beyond the
Bush presidency, when, she said, the administration
needed to keep pressing for more meaningful progress by
the Iraqi government to provide security and bridge
ethnic and sectarian divisions.
Referring to the troop increase ordered last year, she
said, "The only happy ending to the surge is for it to
produce some strategic results, which it has yet to do."
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