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For Democrats, Iowa Still Up for Grabs | |
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THE PROGRESSIVE REVIEW - November 26, 2007
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For Democrats, Iowa Still Up for Grabs
By Anne E. Kornblut and Jon Cohen
The Washington Post
The top three Democratic presidential contenders remain
locked in a close battle in Iowa, with Sen. Hillary Rodham
Clinton (N.Y.) seeing her advantages diminish on key
issues, including the questions of experience and which
candidate is best prepared to handle the war in Iraq,
according to a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll.
Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) draws support from 30 percent of
likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, compared with 26
percent for Clinton and 22 percent for former senator John
Edwards (N.C.). New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson received
11 percent. The results are only marginally different from
a Post-ABC poll in late July, but in a state likely to set
the tone for the rest of the nominating process, there are
significant signs of progress for Obama - and harbingers
of concern for Clinton.
The factors that have made Clinton the clear national front-
runner - including her overwhelming leads on the issues of
the Iraq war and health care, a widespread sense that she
is the Democrats' most electable candidate, and her strong
support among women - do not appear to be translating on
the ground in Iowa, where campaigning is already fierce
and television ads have been running for months.
At the heart of the Democratic race has been the dichotomy
between strength and experience (qualities emphasized by
Clinton, Richardson, and Sens. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of
Delaware and Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut in their
appeals) and the ability to introduce a new approach to
governing (as Obama and Edwards have promised to do).
Iowa Democrats are tilting toward change, and Obama appears
to be benefiting from it.
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Fifty-five percent of those surveyed reported that a "new
direction and new ideas" are their top priority, compared
with 33 percent who favored "strength and experience."
That is a shift from July, when 49 percent sought change
and 39 percent experience.
Nationally, Clinton is viewed as a candidate of change,
with support from 41 percent of Democrats seeking a new
direction in a recent Post-ABC poll. But in Iowa, Obama
dominates the "change" vote, winning 43 percent of that
group, compared with 25 percent for Edwards and 17 percent
for Clinton.
Still, Clinton retains a comfortable lead among Iowa voters
who consider strength and experience more important. She
is supported by 38 percent of Democrats, compared with
19 percent for Edwards, 18 percent for Richardson and
12 percent for Obama, according to the new survey.
She appears more vulnerable on questions of character.
Thirty-one percent found Obama to be the most honest and
trustworthy, about double the percentage who said the same
of Clinton. While about three-quarters credited both Obama
and Edwards with speaking their mind on issues, only
50 percent said Clinton is willing enough to say what
she really thinks. Forty-five percent said she is not
sufficiently candid.
Overall, the poll points to some strategic gains for Obama.
His support is up eight percentage points since July among
voters 45 and older - who accounted for two-thirds of Iowa
caucus-goers in 2004. He also runs evenly with Clinton
among women in Iowa, drawing 32 percent to her 31 percent,
despite the fact that her campaign has built its effort
around attracting female voters.
And despite widespread impressions that Obama is banking
on unreliable first-time voters, Clinton depends on them
heavily as well: About half of her supporters said they
have never attended a caucus. Forty-three percent of
Obama's backers and 24 percent of Edwards's would be
first-time caucus-goers. Previous attendance is one of
the strongest indicators of who will vote.
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Clinton's reliance on new voters helps explain her
campaign's recent push to drive up attendance on caucus
night - including a new "caucusing is easy" video
featuring former president Bill Clinton and a hamburger -
and also illustrates why Edwards, with his cadre of
experienced caucus-goers, remains a formidable threat.
In another positive shift for Obama, 55 percent now see
him as their first or second choice, an important trend
in a state where a person's second choice can matter and
voters often switch their support at the last minute.
According to Democratic Party rules, candidates must draw
at least 15 percent at each caucus site for the votes to
count; if that fails to happen, their supporters often
throw their votes to a more viable contender. In this poll,
34 percent of those voters would make Obama their second
choice, 28 percent Edwards and 15 percent Clinton.
Most supporters of the three front-runners said they will
"definitely" support their chosen candidate on Jan. 3.
About two in 10 said there is a "good chance" that they
will change their minds. That level of certainty suggests
the race will continue to be close in the weeks ahead.
Voters in Iowa continue to view Clinton as the most viable
of the Democrats, although her advantage is significantly
smaller than it is nationally. About four in 10 Iowa voters
called her the Democrats' best hope for November 2008, a
quarter said it is Obama, and 22 percent said Edwards. In
the latest Post-ABC national poll, 62 percent said Clinton
is the party's strongest general-election candidate.
The results of the survey, conducted Nov. 14 to 18, under-
score the urgency and fluidity of the contest as it heads
into its final seven-week stretch. The poll was conducted
by telephone among a random sample of 500 Iowa adults
likely to vote in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus;
the results have a margin of sampling error of plus or
minus four percentage points.
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Iraq and health care dominate as the campaign's top issues.
A third of likely voters described the war as the biggest
issue in their choice for the nominee, while 26 percent
said it is health care. Ten percent highlighted the economy
and jobs, and all other issues were in the single digits.
The race at the local level only somewhat resembles the
national campaign. While Clinton held a 51-point lead on
the question of which Democrat would best handle the
issue of health care in a national Post-ABC poll in late
September, she now has a narrow nine-point advantage on
that question in Iowa.
And Clinton does not have a meaningful edge on the five
other issues in this poll. She runs about even with Obama
as the candidate most trusted to handle the economy, Social
Security and the situation with Iran. On dealing with the
war in Iraq, Clinton's 12-point lead from July has
evaporated. In the new poll, 26 percent most trust Obama
on Iraq and 23 percent choose Clinton, with 15 percent
each for Edwards and Richardson.
Richardson, the only Hispanic candidate, came in fourth on
many questions. But on the explosive matter of immigration,
25 percent said they trust him the most. During the
Democratic candidates' last debate, Richardson gave a clear
answer to the question of whether he would give driver's
licenses to illegal immigrants, saying that as governor he
already had. The same question has flummoxed Clinton and
Obama at various points.
Among all voters surveyed, 38 percent said Clinton has the
best experience to be president, ahead of her rivals but
lower than in July, when 50 percent said so.
Regardless of whom they support, voters reported being
deeply involved in - or at least bombarded by - the
campaign. More than half said they had already attended
a campaign event. More than four in 10 had visited a
candidate's Web site; two in 10 had donated money. Eight
in 10 reported receiving calls from one or more of the
campaigns; 38 percent have been e-mailed.
And in a sign of just how personal Iowa politics are, a
third said they have spoken to or shaken hands with one
or more of the candidates. Two in 10 have met one of the
three leading Democrats; 3 percent have met all three.
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Polling analyst Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.
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