Publication: Conservative Review
Democratic Stalemate | |
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THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW
February 5, 2008
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Democratic Stalemate
By Robert D. Novak
WASHINGTON, D.C. - Terrence McAuliffe, the multimillionaire
wheeler-dealer imposed by the Clintons on the Democratic
National Committee as its chairman after the 2000 election,
quickly paid back his benefactors. He designed a front-
loaded primary system intended to confirm Sen. Hillary
Clinton as presidential nominee by Feb. 5. Contrary to
expectations, however, no choice will be made for months
and perhaps not until the national convention at Denver in
late August.
There is no mathematical possibility of Mega Tuesday ballot-
ing in 22 states tomorrow for 1,681 delegates -- labeled
the first "national" primary -- giving either Clinton or
Sen. Barack Obama close to the 2,025 delegates necessary
for nomination. That unexpected reality is produced by
Obama's appeal, Clinton fatigue and extreme proportional
representation adopted by the Democratic Party.
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The nation's two political parties have reverted to form
after appearing to have exchanged identities. Democrats
a year ago seemed to be emulating Republican practice in
settling for an early anointed candidate, Sen. Clinton,
while the divided GOP field resembled historic Democratic
practice in the absence of an incumbent president.
Republicans, who traditionally abhor competition, are
ready tomorrow to crown Sen. John McCain as their nominee.
Democrats will still be battling.
The full consequences of adopting proportional represent-
ation three decades ago finally will be realized by the
Democratic Party. In 1972, supporters of Hubert Humphrey
protested George McGovern's winner-take-all capture of the
huge California delegation that clinched the presidential
nomination. Appalled at being called majoritarians,
McGovernite liberals adopted proportional representation.
For the next seven presidential elections, Democrats have
avoided its impact creating a stalemate, in the absence of
a prolonged two-candidate contest.
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Under proportional representation, a candidate collects
delegates by achieving the 15 percent viability level
either statewide or in a congressional district. In a
four-delegate district, Clinton could win 59 percent of
the vote and still split the delegates with Obama, two
to two. The impact of California consequently is dissipated
in view of polls showing Clinton's former double-digit
lead cut in half. Although she can win handily in New York
and New Jersey, Obama will be first in Illinois and smaller
states, and is strong in barometric Missouri. So, the
supposed national primary will settle nothing.
Nor, because of delegate division, is it guaranteed that a
nominee would be selected by March 4, in the Texas and Ohio
primaries, or even by April 22, when Pennsylvania votes.
Many of the 796 "super delegates" (unelected prominent
Democrats) can remain undecided. Finally, Clinton will try
to restore Florida and Michigan delegates purged from
convention rolls for scheduling their primaries too early
-- primaries that she won virtually uncontested. That
raises the specter of rival delegations from those two
states arriving in Denver, prompting an old-fashioned
credentials fight.
Before that happens, the issue may be settled by either
Clinton or Obama emerging as the clear popular vote winner
in the primaries and clinching the nomination while short
of a majority of delegates. But that begs the question of
why the issue is still in doubt. McAuliffe, now the Clinton
campaign's national chairman, calculated that front-loading
would make his candidate the de facto nominee by now so
that full time could be devoted to attacking the
Republicans and raising funds against them.
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The answer can be found in the surprising list of senators
who endorsed Obama after Clinton won the New Hampshire
primary: Edward M. Kennedy and John Kerry of Massachusetts,
Patrick Leahy of Vermont, Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Ben
Nelson of Nebraska and Claire McCaskill of Missouri.
McCaskill is the least prominent of the group as a fresh-
man, but she has attracted favorable attention during her
first year in the Senate as a principled independent. She
was campaigning hard last week for Obama in Missouri
against her sister senator.
Senatorial support of Obama helps explain why the McAuliffe
plan failed. In addition to habitual Democratic resistance
to being controlled, many colleagues simply do not trust
Clinton. They complain that in Thursday's debate from Los
Angeles she repeated that she opposed the Levin amendment
to the 2003 Iraq war resolution because it would "sub-
ordinate" U.S. decision-making to the United Nations. It
did not, and Clinton made no such claim until her
presidential campaign. That kind of performance has helped
build the stalemate.
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