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The Bradley Effect | |
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THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW
February 12, 2008
The Bradley Effect?
By Robert D. Novak
townhall.com
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Which Democrat really won Super Tuesday?
Thanks to the Democratic Party's proportional representation,
it is not easy to say a week later. Sen. Hillary Clinton and
Sen. Barack Obama ran a virtual dead heat for delegates that
day in 22 states clearly stacked in Obama's favor. But the
way Obama lost California raises the specter of the dreaded
Bradley Effect.
Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American Democrat,
in 1982 unexpectedly lost his candidacy for governor of
California. His defeat followed voters telling pollsters
they prefer a black candidate and then voting the other way.
In California's primary last Tuesday, Obama lost by a land-
slide 10 percentage points after a late survey showed him
ahead by 13 points and other polls gave him a smaller lead.
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Was this presumed 20-point reversal caused by the Bradley
Effect, which has worried Democratic leaders about Obama
since he became an obstacle to Hillary Clinton's majestic
procession to the Oval Office? It is much too early for
that conclusion, but the subject is in the minds and pri-
vate comments of Democratic politicians pondering the stale-
mate for the party's presidential nomination.
Other than an alarming racial gap separating supporters of
the two candidates, Obama escaped from Super Tuesday without
obvious damage. Clinton's capture of California, New York
and New Jersey gave her the big states contested that day
except for Obama's home state of Illinois and, under Re-
publican winner-take-all rules, would have put her on the
way to the nomination. Instead, Obama got only a 13-delegate
edge out of 1,681 delegates at stake Tuesday.
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That is bad news for Clinton, who now faces a temporary
drought. The next three weeks belong to Obama, with nearly
all 11 delegations to be selected in his favor, culminating
in Wisconsin on Feb. 19. Clinton's strategists spread the
word not to worry because of Texas and Ohio, two big states
presumably favorable to Clinton, on March 4. With its large
Hispanic vote, Texas looks good for Clinton, and Ohio less
certain.
But proportional representation rears its head. Obama strate-
gists privately concede probable defeat in those two big
states but losing their delegate competition by only 174 to
160, a pitifully small margin of 14. The Obama team's calc-
ulation after all the primaries shows Obama with 1,647 dele-
gates and Clinton 1,580 -- both short of 2,025 needed for
nomination. (This confidential information was accidentally
e-mailed to Bloomberg News, which published it.) The issue
could be settled by unelected, unpledged super-delegates, or
a credentials fight over Florida and Michigan, who were
stripped of delegates for scheduling their primaries too
early.
Going into a convention with the nominee unknown for the
first time since 1952 upsets Democratic insiders not merely
because of the uncertainty. Splitting the party along ethnic
and racial lines is troubling -- especially in California,
where massive Latino support for Clinton cancelled Obama's
black base.
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However, disbelief in racial prejudice by their voters leads
Democrats to reject speculation that they lied to pollsters
in claiming to support Obama. The Zogby poll showing a big
Obama lead in California and the Suffolk and Rasmussen sur-
veys indicating a slight edge, it is argued, were just plain
wrong. It is also claimed that the state's final tally was
skewed by an unexpectedly low African-American vote.
But early evening Tuesday briefings on exit polls, the prod-
uct of nonpartisan technicians, cautioned the listeners not
to be carried away by favorable Obama numbers around the
country because his actual performance often is overstated
by exit polls. (Indeed, contrary to early exit poll signals
of an Obama upset in New Jersey, Clinton carried the state
comfortably.) No explanation was given for this aberration,
but many listeners presumed it was the Bradley Effect.
As much as the Democratic stalemate delights the news media,
worried party leaders still hope that Clinton or Obama will
break away in the popular vote before the party convenes in
Denver late in August, even if neither achieves a majority
of delegates.
Howard Dean, who was elected chairman of the Democratic
National Committee after the 2004 elections in a rare mani-
festation of internal party democracy, let it be known he
would be happy to mediate with the two candidates and pick
a nominee in March or April. It was occasion for laughter
in both the Clinton and Obama camps.
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