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Is McCain Sailing Into a Storm? | |
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THE CONSERVATIVE REVIEW
May 13, 2008
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Is McCain Sailing Into a Storm?
By Steve Chapman
The last couple of months have been springtime in
paradise for Republicans: the loveliest of all possible
seasons. They have been watching two Democratic pre-
sidential candidates in an endless battle to destroy
each other -- a process that does not appear to enhance
the chance that the eventual nominee will win in
November.
A recent Gallup poll shows John McCain leading both
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head
matchup. All this before Republicans even begin pub-
licizing the worst that can be said about either of
two candidates whose alleged defects provide a supremely
target-rich environment.
But it's easy to let the individuals involved obscure
larger factors that may prove more important. In a
hurricane, even handsome, well-built boats can end up
underwater. And right now, the GOP looks as though it
may be sailing into a perfect storm.
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Currently, 69 percent of Americans disapprove of the way
President Bush is doing his job. That is the highest
disapproval rating since Gallup began polling 70 years
ago -- higher than Lyndon Johnson during the Vietnam War,
Richard Nixon during Watergate, or Jimmy Carter during
the Iran hostage crisis.
Today, notes polling expert Karlyn Bowman of the American
Enterprise Institute, more Americans think the country is
on the wrong track than at any time since the late 1970s
-- which set the stage for the Republican resurgence of
1980, led by Ronald Reagan. The sentiment is even more
negative now than it was in 1992, when the GOP lost the
White House. Some 63 percent see the Iraq war as a mistake.
Bush's troubles have sent voters fleeing from his party.
In 2004, 47 percent of Americans leaned toward the Demo-
cratic Party, with 44 percent leaning Republican -- a 3-
point difference. Today, it's 51 to 38 in favor of the
Democrats -- a gap of 13 percentage points.
To win, McCain will have to pry away a lot of voters who
currently find the GOP unappealing. Obama (or Clinton),
by contrast, will have only to avoid alienating those
who are already favorably inclined to a change.
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Issue after issue also promises to hurt Republicans. Among
the topics creating the most anxiety are the economy,
domestic matters like health care and immigration, and
Iraq. Of those, immigration is the only one that might
not favor the Democrats.
Richard Norton Smith, a historian who has run the pre-
sidential libraries of Republicans Herbert Hoover, Dwight
Eisenhower, Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan, is pessimistic
about the party's prospects. He thinks the correct analogy
is not 1988 but 1920 or 1952 -- when an unpopular war and
an equally unpopular president spelled doom for the party
in the White House. He thinks 2008 is shaping up not only
as a narrow defeat for the GOP but a decisive "repudiation."
Many Republicans see Barack Obama as the natural heir of
George McGovern -- an antiwar liberal with an avid but
narrow base who is perfectly positioned to lose. They are
also reminded of Michael Dukakis and his difficulty
connecting with white males and working-class voters.
But Smith sees a big difference: In 1988, when Dukakis
lost, the outgoing Republican president was popular,
with an approval rating above 50 percent. Not so today.
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Against trends like this, he strongly doubts that voters
will put much weight on factors like Obama's associations
with radical preachers or his flag-free lapel. Thanks to
the Democratic contest, those matters have been fully
aired, without fatal effect, and they are likely to sound
stale and irrelevant by November.
In his view, the portents are all ominous for the Republ-
ican Party and its nominee. "Why do you think the race
started so early? Why do you think turnout has been so
high?" he asks. "A desire to put this chapter behind us."
The fallout is already apparent. In recent months, Repub-
licans have lost two special elections to fill seats that
had been GOP strongholds. Those shocks prompted former
House Speaker Newt Gingrich to warn that come November,
his party faces the prospect of "a real disaster."
The bad news for Republicans is that objective factors
are conspiring to produce a Democratic victory. The good
news? If the Democrats can't win this year, they may
never.
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